A new analysis on the U.S. oil patch shows a weakening sector after the Trump administration’s trade policies injected uncertainty into global financial markets.
Analysts with S&P Global Commodity Insights are predicting a decline in U.S. oil production in 2026, which would be the first year-over-year decline in production in about a decade, except for drops seen during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The findings indicate that trade worries — coupled with increasing output from other countries — could derail President Donald Trump’s campaign pledge to boost U.S. oil production.
“Although the magnitude of a potential economic and oil demand downturn is as uncertain as the future course of U.S. tariffs, the impact will be negative,” Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil research at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said in a statement Monday accompanying the report. “Initial warning signs of a potential downturn are only starting to come into view. The level of severity is now the big question.”
